What's Being In Top New Free Games Worth?

Hello everyone. Just was wondering if anyone has any recent experience with being in the Top 30 of New Free Games in a Tier 1 or 2 country. I’m trying to get a ballpark estimate on the number of organics to expect while being there. I know it may be different for some, but I’m thinking the results should be somewhat similar, since a game that has made it to Top 30 has probably been optimized to the fullest extent with regards to ASO, icons, screenshots, etc. I understand that there will be a margin of error due to search discovery and 3rd party links; you can however see a more detailed view of where your users came from via the User Acquisition tab within your game’s page. Linking with Google Analytics gives a more detailed view.

The reason I’m trying to get this data is that I’m positive that I can push my game to the Top 30 in the US and UK with a bit of an investment. I’m trying to figure out if the organic traffic generated by being in such a position is worth a large investment. Before you try to warn me, I’ve done my homework, and have have run the numbers based on over 3000 users. I know the LTV of my users, the game has above a 4.2 rating (no review exchanges contributed here!), my game has a good install ratio (25% who view my game page will install my game), and it has an excellent retention rate. Even though I’m trying to gain something from this, I believe this information will be invaluable to this community. Look forward to hearing your responses and note that even if you don’t have exactly what I’m looking for, any info helps.

From my experience:

The amount of downloads will totally depends on the attractiveness of the app. Is it a 1 tap flat art ketchapp/boombit style game or a niche puzzle app? If the game has a proper store listing (attractive Icon and screenshots) for UK i would say you could expect from 500 to 2000 daily downloads, for US i would multiply that by 3-5. To reach Top new 30 games in UK will probably require 1000-1500/day and for US i would say 5 times more.

Hope that helps