Releasing game sequel, what conversion rate to expect?

Hey guys, we finished today the sequel of one of our games :

This game has, according to the dev console, 96k current installs and 5k daily users according to the Google analytics. The sequel is 90% the same game, with many improvements (mainly graphics), and will be called Color Fill 2. We included a big banner in the main screen of the Color Fill, plus a native android message when the app is launched telling about Color Fill 2.

Based on your EXPERIENCE, how many installs should we expect from Color Fill users? Do you think it can make it to 5000 downloads first week?

Thanks, regards!

PD: Original game was released Nov 2013