Lifetime value and retention formula

Hey guys, I’ve been struggling trying to figure out retention rates and LTV of my ad based app for a few months now. It’s obviously really important to know since I am trying to budget for my upcoming marketing campaigns. I can never nail the exact number of what my user is worth in the long run.

I can figure out ARPDAU but retention is where I am having trouble. Any simple formula or ideas on how I can estimate it, or at least put myself in the ballpark. I have flurry, appannie and google dashboard to work with.

Easy cheesy.

Total revenue per application / total number of downloads.

Fair enough

I think this simple formula works well when the app is at least a couple months old, when its daily downloads are not significant in comparison with the total downloads. Applying this formula during the first weeks will give you a considerable lower value