Hi,
I’m from ayeT-Studios so consider me biased, but I’d still like to comment on your post ;).
First of all you’re correct, our downloads are incentivized (as stated on our website) - otherwise we couldn’t hold that price / install.
But the installs are not artifical, that would imply emulators or bot nets & proxies, which violate Google’s Terms.
There are other big players (TapJoy, aarki, SponsorPay just to name a few) in the market who successfully push apps to the Top 10 - at higher prices.
The retention rate of incentivized installs depends on the app quality, but is usually low (5% - max. 20% after one week, where games work a lot better than apps).
The impact of total installs vs. active installs is debatable, but in my opinion the ratio is less important than most people believe.
This is definitely true for the “Top New Free” categories, where Google doesn’t have enough data to actually rank apps based on the active install ratio.
By the way, successful apps with 1.000.000+ installs tend to have an overall retention rate between 20%-30%.
1000 installs within a few days are not sufficient to rank anywhere near the Top 100 in a “Top Free” category, the competition is just too strong and “Top Free” is a lot less jumpy than “Top New Free”, which means it takes more consecutive days at a solid installation rate to climb to the higher rank positions.
There are many factors involved, like country, category and timeframe, but it’s possible to rank new apps in their respective “Top New Free” category with our service if you distribute and target the installs wisely.
Nobody here can give you a definite answer if your ROI will be positive, that’s something you’ll have to evaluate on your own.
There are services which provide a fairly accurate forecast, like AppAnnie Intelligence, buth they’re priced at around $250k anually.
You would have to calculate the CPI, the revenue per incentive user, the revenue per organic Google Play install and compare it to your rise in the rankings and to improvements of your most important keywords through the installs.
Regards,